P2P Lending in 2026: Portfolio Strategy and Risk Guide

The European peer-to-peer lending market passed EUR 3.2 billion in originated loans during 2025. Investor interest has grown steadily as savings rates declined under ECB easing and demand for double-digit yields persisted. The sector enters 2026 with the European Crowdfunding Service Provider (ECSP) regulatory framework arriving, which introduces licensing requirements and investor protections not present in earlier years.

That regulatory backdrop matters when evaluating platforms. It is not a guarantee of safety, but it does provide a framework for assessing which operators are building sustainable businesses.

What European P2P Platforms Are Offering

Advertised returns across the main platforms vary significantly, and the gap between headline figures and realistic net returns is worth examining carefully.

Esketit targets an average annual return of around 11%, with some loan types reaching up to 14%. The platform operates primarily through consumer and business loans in Southern and Eastern Europe, with a buyback obligation on most products.

Robocash offers returns in the 10-12% range with a buyback guarantee. The parent company, Robocash Group, is a significant consumer lender across Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. One detail worth noting: the parent's debt-to-equity ratio rose to 25.1x in 2024, which is high. Investors should monitor parent company financial health when relying on a buyback guarantee from a related entity.

Lendermarket advertises returns up to 18%, with typical investor returns in the 10-15% range. The higher figures apply to short-term loans and require active reinvestment to sustain.

Swaper operates in the consumer lending space and offers competitive rates with a focus on transparency around loan originator financials.

Platform	Advertised return	Buyback	ECSP regulated
Esketit	11-14%	Yes	In progress
Robocash	10-12%	Yes	In progress
Lendermarket	10-18%	Yes	In progress
Swaper	10-14%	Yes	In progress

Buyback guarantees are only as strong as the financial capacity of the entity providing them. This is a key distinction that experienced P2P investors understand but newer participants sometimes overlook.

How Much to Allocate to P2P

Most European P2P investors with broader portfolios allocate between 10% and 25% of investable assets to the asset class. The wide range reflects differences in risk tolerance, income stability and portfolio size.

A reasonable starting framework: P2P exposure should not exceed the percentage of your portfolio you could afford to lose in a worst-case platform failure scenario without materially affecting your financial position. Platform failures have occurred in the European market. Mintos, Bondora and others have had periods of suspended withdrawals or loan book problems. These events are part of the risk profile.

For investors new to P2P, beginning at 5-10% of investable assets allows meaningful exposure to the returns while limiting downside if a platform encounters difficulties.

Diversification Within P2P

Diversification within P2P lending operates at two levels: across platforms and across loan types.

Spreading capital across two or three platforms reduces single-platform concentration risk. Holding all P2P funds on one platform, regardless of its apparent strength, concentrates both credit risk and operational risk in one place.

Within platforms, spreading across many individual loans is typically handled automatically by auto-invest tools. The more relevant diversification choice is across loan categories - consumer loans, business loans, real estate-backed loans - since these tend to correlate differently in economic stress scenarios.

Shorter loan durations provide more liquidity optionality. Thirty-day to sixty-day loans allow capital to recycle more frequently and provide an exit path if platform conditions change.

Red Flags and Risk Signals

Several indicators warrant caution when evaluating a P2P platform.

Withdrawal queue lengths are an early warning sign. When secondary market discounts widen sharply or investor withdrawals pile up in a queue, it signals stress in the loan book or investor confidence. Monitor these figures regularly, not just at the point of initial investment.

Loan originator concentration is another factor. Platforms that channel most investor funds through a single affiliated loan originator have a different risk profile than those working with multiple independent originators. The Robocash situation - a platform backed primarily by its parent group's loans - illustrates this dynamic.

Parent company financials deserve attention when buyback guarantees are central to the investment thesis. A guarantee from an entity with a deteriorating balance sheet is worth less than a guarantee from a well-capitalised one.

P2P lending can be a productive component of a diversified income portfolio in 2026, particularly as savings account rates settle below 2.5%. The key is entering with a clear understanding of the risk structure, not just the advertised return.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Some links are affiliate links.